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Which browser will win? A mathematical Analysis!
Have you ever wondered when would Chrome finally surpass the usage share of Microsoft Internet Explorer? Or when will Chrome exceed the
usage share of Mozilla Firefox? At what instant of time will Chrome become the ultimate browser with (approx) 100% usage? When will Internet Explorer vanish from the browser market? In this post we shall attempt to answer these questions by mathematically studying the browser % usage graph. Let’s see what mathematics predicts about the fate of the browsers in the ongoing browser war!
You might already know that Google Chrome marginally surpassed Mozilla Firefox, becoming the second most popular browser of Britain in
July 2011. Within 3 years of its launch Google Chrome has emerged as third most popular browser of the world. We have been reviewing
the browser usage stats on monthly basis and investigated that every month the %usage of Google Chrome seems to increase while that
of Microsoft’s Internet explorer declines at substantial rate, while that of Mozilla’s Firefox fairly remains constant showing only gentle turn
down. But this time we have added a slightly different tinge to the post. We have studied the trends mathematically to predict the browsers
Overview of mathematical processing!
Okay just briefly let me explain the maths we have used! In the study we have restricted ourselves to the three most popular browsers that
are Internet explorer, Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome. For the purpose of study we have investigated the graph from StatCounter
(from August 2010 to August 2011). For every line depicting the %usage of a browser, we have determined slopes at various points on each line
and later found the mean slope for every line. The purpose of computing means at various points and later taking mean of these slopes, is to
reach results with best accuracy.
The graph of Chrome shows consistent increase with the positive gradient of 1.089 while the graph of Internet Explorer is declining having
a negative slope of 1.215. That is to say that the rate at which consumers are switching from Internet explorer to other browsers is more than
the rate at which consumers are adopting Chrome. Ultimately we see that Google Chrome will outshine IE if the trend continues. The
graph of Mozilla Firefox is rather constant with mild decline seen in the past few months. The slope also depicts mild decline of 0.42. Let us
share some interesting findings based on these values.
When will Chrome and IE reach the same level of % usage?
The Google Chrome line (m=1.089 & y-intercept = 10.15%) will intersect the Microsoft IE line (m= -1.215 & y-intercept = 50.77%) at point
x= 17.63 y=29.35. That means, somewhere in mid of January 2012 the % usage of IE and Google Chrome will be equal amounting to 29%.
When will Chrome surpass IE?
Yes, as expected from the above finding; Google chrome will surpass IE from the point of time above mid of January 2012.
When will Chrome and Firefox share equal % usage in Browser market?
The Mozilla Firefox line (m= -0.419 & y-intercept =31.6%) will intersect the line showing the trend for Google chrome at point x = 14.22, and
y= 25.64. That means Chrome will claim equal share with Mozilla Firefox just by the start of October 2011 when the percentage usage of
each browser becomes 25.64%.
When will Chrome beat Mozilla Firefox?
That will be pretty gloomy for Mozilla Firefox fans but the day when Google Chrome beats Firefox is not that far! According to the maths
Google Chrome will beat Mozilla Firefox after October 2011.
When will Google Chrome become the most popular browser?
Very obvious from the above findings; Chrome beats Firefox this October and IE January 2012. So after mid January Chrome will emerge
as the most popular browser in the market!
When will Google Chrome achieve 90% market share!
Okay this is hypothetical. It is not possible that any browser captures the entire market. There will always be a portion of xyz browsers may it
be very small. Yes, but we can predict the time by which Chrome will occupy majority share therefore the computation is performed for 90%
market share not 100%. Its yet another 5 years for Google Chrome to achieve the market share of over 90%. That implies that Google Chrome
will not only be the most popular browser within next 5 years but will also claim about 90% browser usage share.
That is very evident from the StatCounter % Browser usage graph that currently Google Chrome is the only blooming browser. Mozilla too
with Firefox 5 is declining, particularly owing to loss of substantial clients in business domain; who cannot catch up with the pace of Rapid
Release schedule. As a consequence IE and Google Chrome are finding their way in enterprises. The situation is indeed very alarming for IE
and Mozilla who have ruled the browser market for pretty sometime. Nevertheless its for time to decide which browser actually outsmarts others.
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