Which browser will win? A mathematical Analysis!

Have you ever wondered when would Chrome finally surpass the usage share of Microsoft Internet Explorer? Or when will Chrome exceed the

usage share of Mozilla Firefox? At what instant of time will Chrome become the ultimate browser with (approx) 100% usage? When will Internet Explorer vanish from the browser market? In this post we shall attempt to answer these questions by mathematically studying the browser % usage graph. Let’s see what mathematics predicts about the fate of the browsers in the ongoing browser war!

You might already know that Google Chrome marginally surpassed Mozilla Firefox, becoming the second most popular browser of Britain in

July 2011. Within 3 years of its launch Google Chrome has emerged as third most popular browser of the world. We have been reviewing

the browser usage stats on monthly basis and investigated that every month the %usage of Google Chrome seems to increase while that

of Microsoft’s Internet explorer declines at substantial rate, while that of Mozilla’s Firefox fairly remains constant showing only gentle turn

down. But this time we have added a slightly different tinge to the post. We have studied the trends mathematically to predict the browsers


Overview of mathematical processing!

Okay just briefly let me explain the maths we have used! In the study we have restricted ourselves to the three most popular browsers that

are Internet explorer, Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome.  For the purpose of study we have investigated the graph from StatCounter

(from August 2010 to August 2011).  For every line depicting the %usage of a browser, we have determined slopes at various points on each line

and later found the mean slope for every line. The purpose of computing means at various points and later taking mean of these slopes, is to

reach results with best accuracy.

The graph of Chrome shows consistent increase with the positive gradient of 1.089 while the graph of Internet Explorer is declining having

a negative slope of 1.215. That is to say that the rate at which consumers are switching from Internet explorer to other browsers is more than

the rate at which consumers are adopting Chrome. Ultimately we see that Google Chrome will outshine IE if the trend continues. The

graph of Mozilla Firefox is rather constant with mild decline seen in the past few months. The slope also depicts mild decline of 0.42. Let us

share some interesting findings based on these values.

When will Chrome and IE reach the same level of % usage?

The Google Chrome line (m=1.089 & y-intercept = 10.15%) will intersect the Microsoft IE line (m= -1.215 & y-intercept = 50.77%) at point

x= 17.63 y=29.35. That means, somewhere in mid of January 2012 the % usage of IE and Google Chrome will be equal amounting to 29%.

When will Chrome surpass IE?

Yes, as expected from the above finding; Google chrome will surpass IE from the point of time above mid of January 2012.

When will Chrome and Firefox share equal % usage in Browser market?

The Mozilla Firefox line (m= -0.419 & y-intercept =31.6%) will intersect the line showing the trend for Google chrome at   point x = 14.22, and

y= 25.64. That means Chrome will claim equal share with Mozilla Firefox just by the start of October 2011 when the percentage usage of

each browser becomes 25.64%.

When will Chrome beat Mozilla Firefox?
That will be pretty gloomy for Mozilla Firefox fans but the day when Google Chrome beats Firefox is not that far! According to the maths

Google Chrome will beat Mozilla Firefox after October 2011.

When will Google Chrome become the most popular browser?

Very obvious from the above findings; Chrome beats Firefox this October and IE January 2012. So after mid January Chrome will emerge

as the most popular browser in the market!

When will Google Chrome achieve 90% market share!

Okay this is hypothetical. It is not possible that any browser captures the entire market. There will always be a portion of xyz browsers may it

be very small. Yes, but we can predict the time by which Chrome will occupy majority share therefore the computation is performed for 90%

market share not 100%. Its yet another 5 years for Google Chrome to achieve the market share of over 90%.  That implies that Google Chrome

will not only be the most popular browser within next 5 years but will also claim about 90% browser usage share.

That is very evident from the StatCounter % Browser usage graph that currently Google Chrome is the only blooming browser. Mozilla too

with Firefox 5 is declining, particularly owing to loss of substantial clients in business domain; who cannot catch up with the pace of Rapid

Release schedule. As a consequence IE and Google Chrome are finding their way in enterprises. The situation is indeed very alarming for IE

and Mozilla who have ruled the browser market for pretty sometime. Nevertheless its for time to decide which browser actually outsmarts others.

  • http://www.uniceltech.com Kiran Reddy

    i will use firefox instead of using waste IE and other browsers like google chrome and others. I trust firefox other then any other :-)

  • azsc

    cheome will beat firefox after october 2011 not 2010 , typing error .

  • aaa

    "That will be pretty gloomy for Mozilla Firefox fans but the day when Google Chrome beats Firefox is not that far! According to the maths Google Chrome will beat Mozilla Firefox after October 2010."

    You mean 2011 ;)

  • ace

    Chrome & IE will have 29% in mid-January 2012 while Chrome & Firefox will have 31.6% in October 2011. The numbers seem contradictory.

  • Dr. Angry

    This "analysis" is stupid; you may as well be reading tea leaves. You’re extrapolating from a handful of data points without regard to any predictor variables. You might be right for the first month or two out but things could change rapidly beyond that. No one has any idea what the true shapes of these curves are except we KNOW they’re not linear: You left out "What date will IE have -100% of the market" and "When will Chrome have 300% market share."

    Sheesh. Repost on April 1.

    (Although, I am posting with with Chrome…)

  • http://identi.ca/kennethh kenneth.h

    I’ll continue using midori but I don’t mind opera.. As for the others. I quit using firefox when ff2 was no longer supported. Tried chromium on the netbook for a while and I can’t complain but replaced with midori. I’m not sure why anybody would continue trusting microsoft’s IE.

    But midori has a lot going for it just as much as firefox did when it began really picking up steam. Just need for extension developers to switch to userscripts and/or vala.

  • alex_from_somewhere


    IT WORKS !

  • MrSums

    Until Corporate IT departments adopt Chrome/FF wholesale(and they have zero incentive to do so), you will never get rid of the rump of IE so the extrapolation of current to future is flawed. INDIVIDUALS are choosing their browser, but IT Depts choose a Corporate policy.

  • clp

    Yes, that is certainly not mathematics. The result may prove true, but the method is inconsistent. You don’t even use the fact that the sum of percentages is 100.
    However, there are ways to work with these data, but far more complicated. See, for instance, here
    I would change the title from "a mathematical analysis" to, say, "a short-term prediction".

  • Ayesha .A

    Dear ACE,
    thankyou for pointing out the correction. It was a typo. As I already mentioned in the line above the error the the y-coordinate for point of intersection was 25.64, that implies that the percent usage will be equal to 25.64. I did not copy the figure correctly in the next line. Just corrected. Thankyou so very much.

  • Ayesha .A

    lols you really seem to be angry! well I already mentioned in the post that it is a simple analysis that is meant to be interesting. I do not aim in the post to really predict the future.

    A simple consequence, if FF drops its Rapid release policy, I suppose its graph would again witness a good increase!

  • Frank

    Lynx 4 Life!

  • Ayesha .A

    yes indeed, its simple maths to derive fun facts.Thats it. Else you are very true about the complicated process you mentioned; that is way too complex.This one might be easy for a layman to understand.

  • MrSums

    Just also wanted to make the point that this takes me right back to the Lotus 1-2-3 vs Excel wars back in the later 80’s – we (the Consumer) benefited hugely by the competitive environment and for several years I swapped gleefully between the two as each update brought more and better functionality/speed etc.

    I find I swap happily between Chrome and FF, using them for different reasons on different machines. Only when one of them gives up the competitive fight will the ultimate ‘victor’ be decided; until then ENJOY !!

  • jelabarre

    Why does one browser or another have to "win"???? Are you incapable of handling the choice and flexibility that an open and vibrant marketplace of browsers gives you?

  • FrankH

    Google "Mark Twain extrapolation".

    His conclusion: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact."


  • Ayesha .A

    Its competition that makes the market place better. Competition means winning and losing, and if losing then striking back again with innovation. The post is just a fun article, no offence to any browser. –but i love chrome! ;)

  • http://healthengine.com.au Gerry

    "with Firefox 5 is declining, particularly owing to loss of substantial clients in business domain; [b]who cannot catch up with the pace of Rapid Release schedule[/b]. [b]As a consequence[/b] IE and [b]Google Chrome are finding their way in enterprises[/b]."

    But that reasoning makes no sense as Chrome has a rapid release schedule!!! It’s pretty clear that Firefox got the idea from Chrome. I can see why it would make them stay or switch to IE, but not Chrome.

  • YetAnotherBob

    You assume a continuous increasing of current trends. But such things are not EVER observed in the real world.

    Real growth follows much more a hysteresis curve pattern, a slow beginning and end, with a rapid rise in the middle. Chrome is now in it’s middle growth period. Mozilla Firefox is in the upper part of it’s growth curve, and IE is in a more mature and therefore flattened or declining phase.

    Chrome will soon flatten out it’s growth curve. It is already picking up a lot of negatives for things that it doesn’t do.

    But, it is certain that there will be more new entrants in the future.

    Competition, isn’t it wonderful?

  • http://enteryoursiteURL... mdsadik

    But there is few issue with these browser except IE,doest support some apps designed using Microsoft product.

  • http://goo.gl/ZeyZq Gerry

    The issue is caused by Microsoft. If you have an issue with it you should talk to them. Otherwise use applications that support open standards.

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  • CallumGriffiths

    Google chrome ftw!

  • http://ipduh.com ip intel

    dude you assume constant change rates and absolute knowledge … following your syllogism sometime in the future will be 0 other browsers and the chrome penetration would be at 100%. Don’t take this bad but this not a mathematical analysis or an analysis at all … this is not even a descent guesstimate 

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